The Gist: Presidential Numberwang
After weeks of vibereporting, the first big poll of the campaign proper is out. This is the Gist.
Today's Sunday Independent has an Ireland Thinks poll on the presidential campaign. Unless instantly contradicted by a poll of equal weight, it is likely to be one of those polls that arrives at a moment to set the tone for the rest of the election.
Firstly, let's look at the headline numbers:
Catherine Connolly 32 (+12 in four weeks)
Heather Humphreys 23 (+3)
Jim Gavin 15 (-5)
Undecided 31 (-8)
As you can see, we're in a four horse race with Catherine Connolly and Undecided in a statistical dead heat at the front, Heather Humphreys cantering behind and Jim Gavin teetering on the edge of a visit to the glue factory.
The poll goes on to ask people who their second choices would be and calculates that, as matters stand, once Gavin's eliminated, Connolly would win out over Humphreys on a 53% to 47% split. The sample size was 1,430. The margin of error is +/-2.6pc.
We'll discuss some of the consequences of Fianna Fáil's man becoming the Copydex candidate in a minute. Here's the eternally reliable Gav Reilly to illustrate just how fragile a lead that would mean Connolly currently holds.
In effect, a poll with 31% Undecideds is of next to no value in predicting the final result of the election. What it does give is a clear indication of the relative appeal of the three candidates and the direction of travel of their campaigns to date.
On that basis, let's draw some barely-sustainable conclusions!
We live in TV Times
Firstly, a rise of 12 points in the face of some pretty sustained questions and issues across the last four weeks confirms that Catherine Connolly is having the best campaign, by far. But that vast undecided bloc means she still doesn't have a comfortable lead. Nonetheless, one thing suggests that she may reach those happy fields as the Undecideds start to pick a side.
In an election where nearly a third of voters are undecided, the tendency is for them to disproportionately plump for one candidate after a TV event. And Connolly has already proven to be the strongest TV debater of the three, by far.
That means Heather Humphreys would have to deliver a commanding debate performance just before polling day if she wanted to move the needle on her headline support figures and not just hope Jim Gavin's transfers carried her over the line.
So far, the concept of a commanding Heather Humphreys debate performance remains in the realm of speculative fiction.
Martin's Folly
The Sindo polling sees about 60% of Gavin's support transferring to Heather Humphreys and 35% to Catherine Connolly. But Humphreys can only rely on that to boost her above the frontrunner if Gavin has enough votes left to give by campaign's end to make a difference.
Jim Gavin going backwards by 5 points is likely to provoke a series of knock-on effects inside FF. When FG's Austin Currie ended up with 17% in the 1990 presidential election, it provoked Alan Duke's resignation as party leader. (Though it is worth remembering that nobody liked Alan Dukes as party leader anyway.)
If those Gavin numbers keep trickling lower, expect to hear increasingly strident and attention-grabbing policies from Jim O'Callaghan, looking to position himself as the Micheál Martin replacement plan. I expect him to announce his plans for a chain of Garda stations on the Moon by polling day if Jim Gavin stays south of 15%.
Campaign Chivers
Like jelly, it sometimes seems as though the shape of an election campaign will never set. Unlike jelly, even when it does seem to be settling down, it can all be reshaped by last minute events, TV moments or just undecided voters not being enthused enough to turn out.
Actually, none of that is like jelly at all. Forget I mentioned jelly.
Today's poll has two significant political messages. This election is Catherine Connolly's to lose and is Micheál Martin's to survive. Both can happen, but on today's numbers, neither is a sure thing.
