The Gist: A Presidental Trio

An election campaign has its own momentum, outside of the power or influence of any individual candidate. So, if you are Gareth Sheridan, a splashy launch across the Sunday supplements may prove insufficient to persuade county councils to give you a go. Or, if you are Maria Steen, Lex Luthor's army of screaming monkeys at keyboards may prove counter-productive as you command Oireachtas members to let you throw your Hermès handbag into the ring.

In the end, despite all the noise, the three candidates who are starting their campaign proper this weekend are (in order of nomination) Catherine Connolly, Heather Humphreys and Jim Gavin. In other words, FF, FG and Ors. Not for 35 years has a Presidential Election seemed so stable (and, whisper it, rather uninspiring). But under the surface, this stability hides a political system in a febrile state.

"I like Soap"

The posters have gone up on lamposts. Micheál Martin's candidate Jim Gavin (or Don Uachtaránacht as he's also known to the less observant poster reader) beams, shiny-faced down on the public with all the political charisma of a middle manager in a soap factory. He can't wait to visit some community groups, he explains in his interviews with the zeal of a man eating a slice of waterlogged bread.

The most likely outcome we could expect if he won would be a return to a Presidency in the Patrick Hillery mold. Jim Gavin persuasively assures voters that he could do the time. Fourteen years of working on your golf swing in the Phoenix Park, never troubling the public's mind, or the Government of the day, with anything much of anything? Don Uachtaránacht, human snooze button, is ready to deliver.

Pearls before swine

Heather Humphreys has been rather more successful so far in conveying a sense of herself as a person. That person is admittedly a sort of avatar of Fine Gael- enough pearl necklaces to endanger the viability of oysters as a species, tasteful coloured silk scarves and any other class indicator you'd like to add. But it rings true because it is true. That's a power in a race which is about picking a person as the face of a country. Where Jim Gavin offers a sort of living absence, Heather Humphreys is the Government made present.

The details of her campaign are strategically non-specific. She wants unity, which seems defined as everyone voting for her. This is a policy which any politician could similarly endorse. She'd also prefer to talk about foreign affairs through the lens of Russia's attacks on Ukraine than on Israel and Gaza, the latter being a signature strength of Catherine Connolly's campaign.

We're only two days into the official run, but Humphrys hasn't had any obvious mis-steps yet. What she mostly has to worry about is that Fine Gael doesn't have enough votes to land her a win on its own. So she has to pitch to be the number two choice of both the other candidates. One will be eliminated and likely elect one of the remaining two with their transfers. Expect more talk about how she thinks there ought to be a United Ireland (but, like Saint Augustine pleading to be made chaste, with the caveat "but not yet, oh Lord!")

I Yam What I Yam

The person who has had the roughest time in making the transition from her prior role to putting herself forward as the President of Ireland has been Catherine Connolly. Connolly has no problem presenting herself as a real person with real beliefs, nor is she a representative of a particular political faction, being an Independent backed by an arc of left parties and Sinn Féin.

But she has consistently and voluntarily set out positions which could have been almost designed to alienate blocs of voters from her. She sometimes complains about facing challenging interviews about her views. But nobody asked her to compare modern Germany to the 1930s version under the Nazis. And you just can't expect to pop off a few zingers like that when you're offering to represent the views of the entire population of Ireland and not get some follow up questions. Being an Independent opposition TD means never having to account to a leader or party for what you say. Being a Presidential candidate means having to account to everybody, all the time.

We did learn that she has two cats, which are named Cat 1 and Cat 2, demonstrating a practical approach to cat owning. And she still has the makings of a winning campaign struggling to find its way out. She is touring the country and meeting people. She has the best online presence. Her election would represent a continuity of sorts in Ireland's presentation of its self-image on the world stage with Michael D Higgins. She is the sole candidate not representing a government party and at last count, in 2024, the support for FF and FG put together couldn't quite reach 43% of the votes. Meaning, if she appealed to everyone else, she would represent the majority of the population.

Her challenge will be to find a way to remain true to herself while recognising which parts of her political worldview are shared by voters, and focussing on them.

Unknown unknowns

Like most Presidential campaigns, this one will likely be determined by something unforeseen, unplanned and unavoidable. Whether its Sean Gallagher being asked about collecting money for FF in a TV debate or Brian Lenihan suffering from mature recollection on a radio interview, these elections tend to crystallise suddenly around a defining moment. It's up to the candidates to try to prepare themselves for the unknown. And it's up to the rest of us to have to pick one of them.

Look, it's a difficult time all around.